Some analysis on the QQ hand

Tons of awesome input from people on the QQ hand in the previous post, cheers for that. I'll go over my thoughts on it here.

Firstly, villain is VERY TAG. His style as shown by his aggression factors is to constantly put pressure on opponents. I've never specifically seen him 3barrel light, but he's the type of player I would expect to and I think that's evidenced by his aggression factors by street. He's a good winning reg, one of the better at midstakes on the site and I'm assuming he can hand-read pretty well and make SOME folds.

When I check river villain will perceive my range to be relatively weak, like JQ and shit. He'll bet KQ/AK, obviously any 7, KJ, and triple barrel with a lot of bluffs. I doubt he'll value bet KT or AJ, but it's possible. So his river is pretty polarized to strong Ks, 7s, missed FDs and bluffs.

The thing is players don't check-raise bluff the river that much in general at mid-stakes. Villain doesn't perceive me to have a weird/crazy/tricky image and he doesn't have enough info on me here really to know that I'd make this move with a bluff like a missed flush-draw. So I feel like the first time he's a lot more likely to give me credit for a monster and realize his hand is no good.

When I do raise I need to make him fold 60% of the time for the move to be profitable. I think that like 60% of his range is outright bluffs, around 30% is Ks and around 10% is 7s. He's calling with 7s 100%, AK around 50% of the time and folding all other Ks, missed FDs and bluffs.

It's worth mentioning that this type of move is good for (I hate this term but...) meta-game. I will be noting that I've pulled this move on this specific player and I'd be expecting him to adjust and call me down lighter in the future. Possibly not the next time but certainly the time after, at that point I'd lower my bluffing frequency and widen my value check-raising frequency and expect him to call down light.

Flatting vs Checkraising
Here's my kind of hacked structured hand analysis, the hand combination percentages aren't exact but should roughly illustrate things. I'm not sure the maths is right so feel free to correct me...

If I checkraise...
If he has 7s I lose 644 (10%)
If he has KJ he calls I lose 644 (5%)
If he has AK and calls I lose 644 (5%)
If he has AK and folds I win pot (5%)
If he has other Ks I win pot (15%)
If he's bluffing I win pot (60%)
Checkraise profit = (0.6*523) + (0.15*523) + (0.05*523) - (0.05*644) - (0.05*644) - (0.1*644)
Checkraise profit = 314 + 78.5 + 26 - 32 - 32 - 64
Checkraise profit = $290.50

If I flat call...
If he has 7s I lose 234 (10%)
If he has KJ he calls I lose 234 (5%)
If he has AK and calls I lose 234 (10%)
If he has other Ks I lose 234 (15%)
If he's bluffing I win pot (60%)
Flat call profit = (0.6*523) - (0.15*234) - (0.1*234) - (0.05*234) - (0.1*234)
Flat call profit = 314 - 35 - 23.5 - 11.7 - 23.5
Flat call profit = $220.30

So provided I've not made some error check-raising is more profitable that check-calling, even if he finds a call with AK every time rather than 50% it's still more profitable. Adding in the meta-game advantages it's the better play I reckon.

Kenny, good analysis imo, you're bang on that my raise is designed to fold out strong Ks. I wouldn't expect many players at 1/2 to triple barrel really, but I'd expect more MSNL players like this guy to fire the third barrel... so I do think it's likely he has a bunch of shit in his range.

Danny, I'm check-raising rivers with air against you in future homegames ;) The question is really how often he folds the Ks, I think this player is good enough to put me on a hand that beats him. But I'm not sure if he can put me on a missed FD too and just decide to look me up a bunch. Remains to be seen really... will be fun testing it out!