villain is 13/13
$1/$2 at FTP
4 players
Stacks:
| Hero | ($238.00) | ||
| BTN | ($203.00) | ||
| SB | ($331.55) | ||
| BB | ($97.50) |
Pre-flop: ($3, 4 players) Hero is CO
Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $26, 1 fold, Hero calls $19
I flat his 3bet here because I don't think he'll ever 5betshove any hands I beat. I'll either be flipping or against AK. I'll play the hand with position postflop and try to figure out what he has.
I put his 3betting range on like TT+/AK kind of thing, maybe even JJ+. It's pretty tight.
Flop:
($54, 2 players)SB bets $34, Hero calls $34
Turn:
($122, 2 players)SB checks, Hero ($178)?
When he checks turn I take it as weakness and bet, which I now think was a big mistake. If he is indeed weak and has AK, he just mucks it here, there's not much value in betting and I don't really need to protect my hand all that much from a 6-out draw. If he has JJ (or sometimes TT) I'll probably get his stack in, but the times he has KK/AA and is smart enough to turn/checkraise me I'm going to lose my stack. It's a spot where there just isn't really any value in betting.
I think checking behind turn is the best play here. Pretty interesting how this hand figures out after analysing it taking his tight 3b range into account.
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6 comments:
Basically, you already summed up what is important to discuss on this hand. I agree with all of your comments about it.
Good analisis a bit ahead of my thinking i would just bet out here without thinking about it. More of these plz.
Bet turn. Giving free cards to AK here is something I don't want to do as well as missing value from 99-JJ. I think you lose far more value not betting than you do the times you walk into a nicely played AA/KK.
Also - If the river comes an A or K you give the speculative parts of his range (the times he'll show up with low connectors, middling pairs, etc) a good opp to bluff. I'm not saying you're folding but it is a tough guessing game then.
Also - this is NL200. It's really not a bad rule of thumb to just value bet when you think you have the best of it. All part of the ABC way of playing this level which rules!
Adam
Cheers for the comments so far.
This was basically the argument I was wondering about...
How often does he really check-shove the turn here with AA/KK? He probably just barrells it most of the time.
Main thing is though I'm fairly certain he never 3bets me with 99, and often not TT either. I'd expect him to flat both of them. So the only hand I really feel that I'm missing value from is JJ. I think the spot here is too thin to value bet.
I give AK one free card. But I'm not sure that's enough of a reason to bet. I feel like I'm much better pot controlling here.
I don't really think he's gonna be smart enough to bluff an A or K on the river either. Even if he was then he might bluff any river card anyway - not just As and Ks - and I can snap him off.
I just don't think turn is really a valuebet considering there's only 1 hand I think I might get value from... and I don't think the value of folding out AK is worth it either, he might be tempted to do dumb shit like betting AK again if he missees the river too, which probably evens out the times he hits.
I like the passive pot-control line I think.
Cheers for the comment, some interesting things to think about.
betting allows this player to make a mistake though. They may call with ace high or something completely random you weren't expecting.
If you think he's not tricky enough to check AA/KK then I think this is a clear bet and control the pot that way. You've been very passive to this point (a line I would have taken myself (more often than not)) and I think with QQ you have to take over control of the pot. I don't believe checking behind does that.
Just don't push all in. Why not a bet of $40-$50 (obv not folding to a shove)?
I like the turn bet. If you're worried about folding AK, you're probably not going to get value from it on the river either, against a 13/13 villain. If he's shown that he's willing to make either really thin value bets on the river when shown weakness, I could see maybe checking behind and getting TT or JJ to put in a bet there. If he's the sort of guy who would bet AK on the river after you check, he'd probably barrel you on the turn, so I don't think that's particularly likely.
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