Gonna dissect some hands I posted a while back, hopefully get some input on them.
Here's the first...
Turn double barrell?
Do you fancy firing $120 on the turn? Are we folding out enough? I'm putting villain on a middle pair type hand. I guess he could have A7 or a set too.
I think the flop raise is fine. SB has shown weakness by leading out superweak, he has some sort of draw like 90% of the time so I think he folds to my big bet like 80% of the time. I only have 1 other player left to act behind me and he's going to need a stronger than usual hand to call as my flop raise represents strength. I think the flop raise is +EV on it's own, but if it doesn't take it down I can fire at a non draw completing turn card and some scare cards and take it down a ton of the time. I've got 2 overs, a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw too so I've got some value to improve.
On the turn my hand has lost a ton of its value. I've got gutshot and pair outs but they could easily be counterfeited. So now I'm more inclined to bluff as it's likely to be the only way I'll win the pot. The A is a great card to bluff at, if he has a middle-pair or draw type hand without the A he's likely to fold it. Pretty unlikely he flopped a set or 2pr as he didn't try to protect it. I only need to bet $120 into $172 to bluff and I think he has a draw and folds to my double barrell about 50% of the time. So I think double-barrelling is most profitable here.
I guess the question is how often is the A in his range? (He's 16/10 over a tiny sample) Also does he ever play a set or 89 this way?
Monday, 21 April 2008
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6 comments:
Great analysis. I'm all for firing the turn, and obv. folding to a shove. If he calls the turn, you can't assume he's on some sort of draw anymore, and basically have to check/fold the river imo.
Hey may have gotten tricky with a set or a flopped straight but usually he's got some sort of flush or straight draw. If he calls you on the turn I'd say he has a naked flush draw w/ the A oh hearts, and is now prob. not going to fold to any of your action.
I dunno your line looks really strong here with 2 others left in the hand i feel he will raise a set because you look like you have a big pair so i would put him on a naked FD, 4's or 8's. Possibly 78d 910 type hand. Of course if he has the Ad he has just hit and is not going anywhere but how often does he have that i figure a guy with them stats would fold Axs PF so i think more so a 78/pair type hand.
If you do bet the turn and he calls, raises i think you have to give up but you fold out alot of hands by betting so maybe its worth it. I think the best play is to fold this PF.
Cheers for the responses dudes, however I've been swayed to playing this more passively after getting some interesting repsonces to the hand in on Leggo.
If I'm heads up with the weak-leader then I raise his flop bet every time, but here he's led into 3 players and I've got to fold out the player behind me too. So maybe this isn't an obvious "raise his donk bet with outs" spot.
On the turn I still assumed he had a pr and an open-ender, or a flush draw and could likely take him off it. However this was a mistake I reckon, after he calls my big flop bet I have to give him more credit. Checking behind on the turn is probably best.
BazSpew-1
As for folding this PF, this is well within my CO opening range. Definately opening 100% of the time here. J9s is delicous.
Hmm good point Baz, gg reading skills. Seeing how it is a 4-way pot, it really is not a standard raise a donk lead pot. You are representing strength, but figure it this way...if you had AA how do you play the hand? What did he end up having if you don't mind me asking?
Late to the party and haven't read the other analysis, but I still don't mind a raise on the flop here, mostly for the reasons you mentioned in the original post. Maybe not standard, and if BB had not folded, I would probably have just called behind him. That said, once BTN calls, I'm done with the hand OOP. You've just shown too much strength for me to think that he'll now fold. IP, I might barrel here, but not OOP.
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